June 10th will be a substantial political test. It will be surprising if it is not, in part, a referendum on Tony Blair and the Iraq war - but that should not obscure a more fundamental change which is taking place. The electorate has moved on and party politics is trailing behind. While the 20th century was small 'c' conservative, the 21st looks set to be small 'l' liberal. Britain is less deferential, more open about sexuality and equality. It's starting to show.
Labour is in trouble. The Blair government is no longer trusted: but that tends to obscure the reality that his administration is at odds with the instincts of his party. Can anyone be sure what Labour now stands for?
The Conservatives are desperate to believe that Michael Howard has changed their fortunes. Yet Populus has shown that they are flatlining at 31% in the polls - as they have been for the past eleven years. Uncomfortable with modern Britain, they are split on Europe. Such uncertainties are reflected in their mishmash of policies.
My party, in contrast, is at ease with itself - we have no identity crisis. Our policies reflect our Liberal and Social Democrat antecedents. We are in partnership government in Scotland, we run councils up and down the country, we won the Brent by-election because the electorate has recognised that the Liberal Democrats speak most easily for multi-cultural and multi-faceted communities. We are averaging around 10% higher in the polls than we were at this time in the last parliament.
Liberal instincts focus on freedom of the individual, keeping a vigilant eye on the encroaching powers of the state, while also promising protection for the most vulnerable in our society. In this global and technocratic age, with the added threat of terrorism, our internationalism is welcome. We support the UN and are pro-European. We are also committed environmentalists. We are pro-public services. We favour honesty and fairness about tax - if taxes for the very wealthiest need to go up we say so, as we did at the last election. If the focus should be on more effective delivery for tax-payers money, we say that too.
Mark Oaten's 'tough liberalism' in Home Affairs has given the party a fresh voice on issues like immigration and policing. He stands up for asylum seekers, opposes indefinite detention without trial in Belmarsh and has identified practical ways of keeping non-violent offenders out of jail and forcing them to pay back the communities they have abused.
Vince Cable has endorsed a tax regime which requires the top 1% of earners to pay a little more (50p on every pound over £100,000) to fund an extra £5 billion of public spending to abolish tuition and top up fees, introduce free personal care for the elderly and axe the council tax. He's also engaged in identifying areas of public spending which should be re-prioritised. This is not a Tory paperclips and bureaucracy exercise, it's a serious attempt to use our taxes more effectively. Vince will have more to say on both as we approach the General Election. These policies cover a broad spectrum which is completely consistent with liberal democratic traditions.
My party was united in opposition to the war in Iraq. As the post-conflict instability rises, the White House is increasingly edgy about handing power to the transitional authority on June 30th.
I have continuously argued for greater UN involvement and welcome the arrival of Lakhdar Brahimi - even at this eleventh hour. But he has a huge task with only a couple of months to identify the structure of the new authority.
As an occupying power, Britain has a moral and legal responsibility to restore stability in Iraq. By June 30th we must have a clear arrangement in place about the relationship between our forces and the new rulers. We must be confident that our troops are not being asked - needlessly - to undertake impossible tasks at unacceptable risk to their lives.
Last week, in Parliament, I asked the Prime Minister whether he would send more troops to Iraq. He said no. Now reports suggest that we are, in fact, preparing to send more soldiers.
Tony Blair must be more straightforward. The British people are weary of incomplete answers, half-truths and uncertainties. The reality is that we cannot long postpone a more urgent debate about what our future role in Iraq should be.
We could immediately implement one confidence building measure. While the deaths of our citizens are obviously of paramount importance to us - Iraqi deaths and injuries currently far exceed them. It is outrageous that, at the moment, no record is kept of the number of Iraqis killed. We simply do not know, since the occupation began, how many have died. In future, each time a citizen of Iraq is struck there should be an investigation into the circumstances.
The Iraq war crystallised the national discontent with politics and politicians. The temptation will be to take it out on Tony Blair. But again this masks the fundamentals - the shifting demographic of our society. Our national institutions are changing. We are no longer a nation of one church, or one family structure, or one colour and if the political parties are to stay relevant, they must reflect those changes.
I believe the electorate has recognised this. The public is impatient of intricate debates about policy focussed on out of date, left-right arguments. Voters want a clear idea of what they are getting and if it matches up with their aspirations and needs, they will vote for it. That's the real politics of June 10th.
ENDS
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